Empirical Market Data (1995–2026)
Historical Nifty 50 SIP Returns (30-Year Data)
What does 30 years of Indian stock market data teach us about SIPs? Why 12.0% CAGR is the mathematically honest long-term benchmark.
The 0% Loss Rule
0.0%
In 30 years of Nifty 50 history, an SIP held for 7 years or longer has never delivered negative returns.
15-Year Median CAGR
12.9%
Across every single 15-year rolling period since 1995, the median Nifty 50 SIP CAGR was approximately 12.9% p.a.
Worst 20-Year Outcome
10.4%
Even if you started an SIP before the worst market crashes (Dot-Com or 2008), the minimum 20-year return was still 10.4% CAGR!
Nifty 50 Total Return Index (TRI) Rolling SIP Performance
| SIP Tenure | Average CAGR | Min CAGR | Max CAGR | Negative Periods | Historical Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Years | 13.4% | -8.5% | 38.2% | 8.2% | High Volatility |
| 5 Years | 13.6% | 1.2% | 29.4% | 0.4% | Moderately Stable |
| 7 Years | 13.5% | 4.8% | 24.1% | 0.0% | Zero Negative Periods |
| 10 Years | 13.8% | 6.8% | 21.4% | 0.0% | Consistent Double Digit |
| 15 Years | 12.9% | 8.2% | 18.5% | 0.0% | Definitive Wealth Creation |
| 20 Years | 12.6% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 0.0% | Generational Compounding |